Conflicts from the past continued to dominate in the first half of 2025 as the Russian-Ukrainian military engagement, which started in 2022, and the Hamas-Israeli conflict, which began in 2023, rage on. These confrontations have not just affected the parties involved, but spilled over into the realms of individual and international security, mass migration, the global economy, and diplomatic relations.[i]
These conflicts have continued because the warring parties chose armed conflict over negotiation. Major historical conflicts such as the two world wars, the Cold War, and a series of military conflicts post-9/11 unfolded in similar ways. However, one difference today is that the major powers have strong incentives not to fight one another.
The Council on Foreign Relations, an independent think tank based in New York, published a Preventive Priorities Survey in 2025 that can help us calculate whether the world is heading towards more confrontation or more cooperation. The survey polls hundreds of American foreign policy experts on their assessments of the likelihood of threats to the United States in the next 12 months. The findings of the survey are categorised into three tiers depending on the likelihood of escalation and the intensity of the impact. All conflicts listed are conflicts from the previous years, with no signs of positive development in the first half of 2025.
Tier 1, for example, includes conflicts where the likelihood of escalation and the impact of the fighting remains moderate-high throughout 2025. Those surveyed believe the Israeli-Hamas war and Ukrainian-Russian war will continue this year. The Iran-Israel clash erupted into full-blown war in June, 2025, with direct implications for regional stability in the Middle East. Even though these haven’t yet occurred as a full-blown confrontations, the humanitarian crisis involving the migrants at the US-Mexico border as a result of deployment of United States security forces to Mexico, increased Russian military provocations in Georgia and Moldova, and assertive Chinese action in the South China Sea all fall into the top tier as respondents believe they will likely escalate.
Conflicts such as the ongoing civil war and ethnic violence in Sudan, confrontations in Somalia between Al-Shabaab and the Somalian government, and clashes in Afghanistan were deemed to be either less likely to continue or to have a lower impact than the top tier. Other geopolitical tensions in Tier 2 include the Red Sea crisis, where Houthi rebels launched missiles and armed drones towards Israel and seized commercial vessels, political instability in Pakistan, India-Pakistan tensions, and North Korean bellicosity.
Poor governance in the Sahel, tensions in Nigeria, and the situation in Bangladesh were deemed by the Council on Foreign Relations to be in Tier 3, where either there is moderate likelihood of the situation escalating or the low impact across the globe. Other situations include the political conflicts and power struggles in eastern Congo, Myanmar, and Mozambique over territorial claims, as well as civil conflicts in Ethiopia, Libya and the Western Balkans, clashes that have all resulted in an increase of civilian casualties and displacement.
Looking at the concentration of geopolitical confrontation in different regions in the past three years, it is clear that confrontations in the Middle East are the most likely to escalate. The Israeli-Hamas war has intensified with other conflicts in the Middle East, especially the reaction of the Houthis in the Red Sea, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza includes more than 50,000 deaths, 100,000 wounded, and 2 million displaced individuals.[ii] As mentioned, the conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified, causing widespread fighting across both countries.
The launch of attacks and counterattacks by state and non-state actors in the Middle East has led to increased securitisation. The situation has been aggravated by the less effective regional order, which has widened the disparity between Arab countries in terms of governance, economy, and social well-being. The disparity has created resentment in lesser-developed Arab countries, allowing societal actors (communities, NGOs, media, interest groups, or grassroot movements) to initiate the framing of an issue as a security threat, and push authorities to act on it. This is known as bottom-up securitisation of the Copenhagen School. On the other hand, through the same Copenhagen top-down securitisation, a state may portray an attack as a grave security threat, enabling a government to legitimise retaliation and exceptional policies. Unmitigated clashes between non-state actors and authorities, will lead to a vicious cycle of instability and contribute to wider-scale confrontation.
The ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, held on May 27, 2025 in Kuala Lumpur, was one of the first joint initiatives between Southeast Asian countries, China and the Gulf Cooperation Council to de-escalate the conflicts in the Middle East. For the first time, leaders from ASEAN, the GCC and China agreed that the situation in the Middle East should be mitigated. Attendees at the summit urged parties involved to work towards peaceful resolution via existing frameworks, including the Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, the International Court of Justice’s Advisory Opinions towards unlawful occupation, and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions. Though the meeting tackled important discussion, the agenda was limited as only GCC countries participated rather than the entire Middle East.
In general, the state of international relations is very dynamic right now. There are more and more questions towards international organisations’ effectiveness and the leadership of the major powers, and the ongoing confrontations in the Middle East and other regions are a reflection of this crisis of confidence. Isolationism, trade wars, and excessive protectionism by the major powers have eroded a clear path to reconciliation and de-escalation in all tiers of conflict.
Despite attempts to calm the storm such as the ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, the Iran-US nuclear negotiations, and the Gaza ceasefire deal, 2025 will be a year full of challenges, and full of uncertainty. This does not mean we should be pessimistic towards the prospect of peace. Rather, 2025 opens more room for intervention by middle powers as well as regional blocks like ASEAN and GCC. ASEAN-GCC-China Summit is a unique innovation, established amid conflicts but is sending a clear signal that the middle powers are no longer bystanders. Every entity has a role to play to mitigate confrontation from being escalated.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.
[i] Infuture Institute, (2025). Geopolitical Confrontations, https://infuture.institute/en/trend/geopolitical-confrontations/
[ii] France 24, (2025). World Leaders Urge Israel To Stop Its Deadly Military Offensive in Gaza, 17 May, https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250517-world-leaders-urge-israel-to-stop-its-deadly-military-offensive-in-gaza
