During the early days of the 2022 Russian-Ukraine war, commercial satellites captured a massive convoy advancing toward Kyiv. These images, widely disseminated, marked a turning point for the discipline of geospatial intelligence or GEOINT[1], which uses technology to fuse imagery, mapping, and advanced analytics. By revealing Russia’s logistical vulnerabilities, GEOINT had showed itself to be both a tactical tool and a public instrument of strategic messaging.
Hybrid conflicts, global criminal networks, cyber-physical vulnerabilities, and climate-related emergencies now define the security agenda. To respond effectively, analysts must bring together imagery, mapping, and advanced data analysis to generate clear, actionable intelligence. GEOINT is the use of satellite images, detailed maps, and other location-based data to tell decision-makers on the ground where things are happening so they can better grasp is happening. This ability to place information in a geographic context allows governments and agencies to plan ahead, act with precision, and hold actors accountable. GEOINT’s growing importance reflects rapid advances in satellite technology and data analysis, the increasingly unpredictable nature of global threats, and the rising demand for intelligence that not only explains current events but also helps anticipate what comes next.[2] From exposing Russian troop movements in Ukraine to guiding aid delivery in the wake of the Türkiye–Syria earthquakes, GEOINT has become a decisive weapon against insecurity, while also raising new challenges.[3]
Moving Left of Boom: Predictive Abilities, Integration With Other Intelligence, Keys to GEOINT’s Rise
Security risks are no longer limited to conventional state-on-state wars and unfold across gray zones where attribution is difficult and geography is complex. In Nigeria, for example, the terrorist group Boko Haram operates in the dense Sambisa Forest, making it difficult for traditional intelligence to locate their hideouts. With GEOINT, however, decision-makers have been able to track Boko Haram’s patterns, enabling targeted strikes.[4]
Once dominated by superpower capabilities, space-based observation is now a competitive commercial sector with providers able to supply near-real-time imagery, often with resolutions below one meter. The big players in this sector include the Colorado-based Maxar Technologies, which traces its roots to the 1969 founding of MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) in Canada,[5] and specializes in high-resolution Earth-imaging satellites and geospatial analytics for both government and commercial clients. Planet Labs began in 2010 in San Francisco when a group of former NASA scientists set out to launch large fleets of small, low-cost satellites (“Doves”) to photograph the entire Earth daily, while ICEYE is a Finnish start-up founded in 2014 by engineers Rafal Modrzewski and Pekka Laurila at Aalto University near Helsinki[6]. ICEYE focuses on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites capable of capturing images through clouds and darkness, providing persistent monitoring anywhere on the planet.
Policymakers increasingly expect intelligence to “move left of boom,” that is to anticipate crises rather than react to them, and this demand for predictive capabilities has also fueled the rise of GEOINT.[7] GEOINT’s integration with other intelligence streams has expanded its utility. The fusion of geospatial, signals (SIGINT), human (HUMINT), and open-source intelligence (OSINT) allows for multidimensional clarity.[8] During NATO monitoring of the Baltic region in 2023, analysts combined intercepted communications with satellite imagery and social media geolocation to expose hybrid sabotage plots, revealing both the “where” and the “how” of unfolding threats. This convergence underscores GEOINT’s unique power to bridge multiple intelligence sources into coherent, actionable understanding.[9]
Geospatial Technology’s Applications — From Counterterrorism to Environmental Security
GEOINT has proven vital in diverse fields, from counterterrorism to border and environmental security and disaster relief. In dense urban environments where insurgents exploit buildings, tunnels, and civilian infrastructure. Technologies such as pattern-of-life analysis can detect unusual activity around suspected militant compounds. The raid that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011 was underpinned by months of geospatial analysis, including satellite imagery and 3D terrain modeling of his Abbottabad compound. In Mosul and Raqqa, GEOINT helped coalition forces identify Daesh tunnel networks, track convoys, and conduct precision strikes with reduced collateral damage.[10] The ability to visualize urban layouts and detect hidden infrastructure has shifted the balance in complex counterinsurgency operations.
The U.S. Border Patrol combines satellite images with data from aircraft-mounted sensors and advanced forecasting tools to pinpoint likely smuggling routes and unauthorized crossings. In Europe, the Copernicus Programme, the European Union’s flagship Earth-observation initiative launched in 2014, relies on a fleet of “Sentinel” satellites and ground-based measurements to monitor the environment. Its data have been used to track migrant movements across the Mediterranean, mapping both the coastal departure sites in North Africa and the key arrival areas in southern Europe.[11]
When natural disasters strike, GEOINT accelerates response by providing near-instant assessments of damage and accessibility. During the February 2023 Türkiye–Syria earthquakes, Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) released damage proxy maps within hours, guiding rescue teams and aid convoys. UNOSAT, the United Nations Satellite Centre based in Geneva, specializes in using satellite imagery and geographic information systems to support humanitarian response and development work. During the earthquake response, UNOSAT provided detailed situational maps showing the location of collapsed buildings, which helped relief teams quickly identify the hardest-hit areas and prioritize resources. Satellite imagery and predictive models can also help firefighters anticipate fire spread and optimize containment strategies. GEOINT’s role in humanitarian contexts demonstrates its versatility beyond military domains, showing how it can reduce human suffering and prevent crises from spiraling into insecurity.[12]
Climate change and resource scarcity are increasingly recognized as drivers of conflict, and GEOINT has become central to monitoring these dynamics. Multispectral satellite imagery can detect illegal logging in the Amazon, while SAR data can track shrinking reservoirs in Central Asia that fuel interstate tensions. In the Sahel, GEOINT is used to monitor grazing routes and water access points, helping mediate disputes between farmers and herders before they erupt into violence. The World Food Programme employs satellite-based crop classification to anticipate shortages and plan aid delivery, linking environmental monitoring directly to food and human security. In the Horn of Africa, geospatial crop monitoring combined with climate data allowed humanitarian groups to forecast food insecurity hotspots months in advance, enabling pre-emptive aid delivery and potentially reducing the destabilizing effects of famine.[13]
The GEOINT Dilemma: Technology Seems Great — Until It Falls Into the Wrong Hands
GEOINT also carries risks. The democratization of imagery means that adversaries, state and non-state alike, can exploit the same data. Daesh, for instance, used publicly available Google Earth imagery to plan attacks in Iraq and Syria. Mexican cartels have reportedly deployed drones with geospatial mapping to identify border patrol patterns, enhancing their smuggling operations.[14]
Overreliance on GEOINT also creates vulnerabilities. Data manipulation, spoofing, or denial-and-deception tactics can undermine its reliability. Russia has employed inflatable decoys and thermal deception to mislead targeting systems, while GPS spoofing in the Black Sea and Baltic regions has disrupted civil aviation and maritime navigation. In early 2025, reports emerged of extensive interference with GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems), the satellite constellations such as GPS, Europe’s Galileo, and Russia’s GLONASS that provide positioning and timing signals for aviation and navigation. The disruption affected tens of thousands of flights across Europe and even interfered with aircraft carrying senior officials, illustrating how hybrid actors can weaponize the geospatial domain.[15]
Moreover, GEOINT raises ethical and legal dilemmas. Persistent surveillance blurs the boundaries between civilian and military use, raising privacy concerns. In some countries, governments have adapted GEOINT techniques for mass surveillance, where geospatial tools are linked with facial recognition systems to track minority populations. The lack of international norms governing dual-use commercial imagery or sovereignty over satellite data risks future disputes, particularly in contested regions such as the South China Sea and the Arctic.[16]
Emerging Technologies: The Next Wave
To get the most out of GEOINT while limiting its risks, governments and international bodies need a strong and practical policy framework. They should focus on making systems resilient, for example, by using a variety of imaging and sensing technologies so that no single failure or attack can shut everything down. It is equally important to protect the “downlinks” (the ground stations and networks that receive satellite data) and the cloud services where that information is stored. Agencies also need back-up plans for times when GNSS signals, global navigation systems like GPS or Europe’s Galileo, are jammed or unavailable.[17] Finally, every image or data set should include a clear record of its origin and be checked against multiple sources to guard against fake or altered pictures, including so-called deepfakes.
On the international stage, countries need clearer rules for how commercial satellite images are used, who owns the data over contested areas, and how to manage “dual-use” information that can serve both civilian and military purposes. Examples of responsible cooperation already exist: NATO’s intelligence-sharing hubs and the European Union’s Copernicus Earth-observation program show how data can be widely shared while still protecting sensitive details. Just as important is investing in people. Artificial intelligence can help process huge amounts of imagery quickly, but skilled analysts are still vital for understanding the context, assessing uncertainty, and turning geospatial information into sound strategic decisions.[18]
Geospatial intelligence is no longer just a specialist’s tool. It has become both a strategic asset and a form of global governance. It helps militaries plan precise operations, allows governments to deter aggression by making threats visible, and supports humanitarian agencies in saving lives. Its future depends on finding the right balance: acting quickly without sacrificing accuracy, building strong legal and ethical safeguards, and protecting systems from deception or attack. From Ukraine’s battlefields to Red Sea shipping lanes and the quake-hit cities of Türkiye and Syria, GEOINT has already shown its ability to shape events and reveal the truth. The challenge now is to ensure this powerful capability is used to protect people and strengthen stability, not to fuel new cycles of surveillance and counter-surveillance.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.
[1] American Public University, ‘What Is Geospatial Intelligence and How Has It Evolved?’, January 4, 2025, https://www.apu.apus.edu/area-of-study/intelligence/resources/what-is-geospatial-intelligence/
[2] Gengchen Mai et al, ‘Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence’, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Volume 136, 2025, Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence - ScienceDirect
[3] USGIF, ‘GEOINT Lessons Being Learned from the Russian-Ukrainian War’, February 22, 2024, GEOINT Lessons Being Learned from the Russian-Ukrainian War - USGIF
[4] Minko, Abraham Ename (2025) "EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES IN BOKO HARAM'S OPERATIONS AND COUNTER-TERRORISM EFFORTS IN CENTRAL AFRICA," Journal of Terrorism Studies: Vol. 7: No. 1, Article 3, https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/jts/vol7/iss1/
[5] Boucher, Mark, ‘An Abridged History of MDA’, January 6, 2020, SpaceQ, An Abridged History of MDA - SpaceQ Media Inc.
[6] Amos, Jonathan ‘Finnish start-up ICEYE's radical space radar solution’, January 12, 2028, BBC, Finnish start-up ICEYE's radical space radar solution
[7] Dillard, John, ‘Predicting and Preventing Security Threats with James Bourie’, August 29, 2025, Singnsolutions, Predicting and Preventing Security Threats with James Bourie
[8] Kotaridis, I., Benekos, G. (2023), ‘Integrating Earth observation IMINT with OSINT data to create added-value multisource intelligence information: A case study of the Ukraine–Russia war,’ Security and Defence Quarterly, 43(3), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.35467/sdq/170901
[9] Feng, John and Jordan King, ‘Satellite Images Appear To Show Russia Has New Spy Base on NATO’s Doorstep,’ Newsweek, August 22, 2025, Satellite Images Appear To Show Russia Has New Spy Base o... - Newsweek
[10] Garamone, Jim, ‘Intelligence, Operations Team Up for bin Laden Kill’, January 5, 2011, dvidshub.net, DVIDS - News - Intelligence, Operations Team Up for bin Laden Kill
[11] Tschada, Jan, ‘Using Sentinel-2 and MODIS for Imagery Intelligence’, Medium, October 13, 2022, Using Sentinel-2 and MODIS for Imagery Intelligence | by Jan Tschada | Geospatial Intelligence | Medium
[12] UNITAR (2024) Midterm evaluation of UNOSAT mapping service – evidence-based information support to humanitarian assistance, peace and security using satellite imagery and geospatial techniques project, Midterm evaluation of UNOSAT mapping service – evidence-based information support to humanitarian assistance, peace and security using satellite imagery and geospatial techniques project | UNEG
[13] Catherine Nakalembe et al, ‘A review of satellite-based global agricultural monitoring systems available for Africa,’ Global Food Security, Volume 29, 2021, A review of satellite-based global agricultural monitoring systems available for Africa - ScienceDirect
[14] Balkan, Serkan, ‘DAESH’S DRONE STRATEGY TECHNOLOGY AND THE RISE OF INNOVATIVE TERRORISM’, SETA, 2017, 'DAESH’s Drone Strategy: Technology and the Rise of Innovative Terrorism'
[15] International Finance, ‘GPS jamming: A growing threat to aviation safety’, September 15, 2025, GPS jamming: A growing threat to aviation safety - International Finance
[16] Gil Denis et al, ‘Towards disruptions in Earth observation? New Earth Observation systems and markets evolution: Possible scenarios and impacts,’ Acta Astronautica, Volume 137, 2017, Towards disruptions in Earth observation? New Earth Observation systems and markets evolution: Possible scenarios and impacts - ScienceDirect
[17] Kawade, Prachi, ‘Data Downlink: The Shining Star of Satellite-Based Cloud Services’, analysis mason, 17 May 2022, Data Downlink: The Shining Star of Satellite-Based Cloud Services
[18] Balona, Mariana, ‘From Intelligence Collection to International Security: The Strategic Value of GEOINT in Monitoring Dual-Use Infrastructure,’ Atlas Institute for International Affairs, September 9, 2025, From Intelligence Collection to International Security: The Strategic Value of GEOINT in Monitoring Dual-Use Infrastructure | Atlas Institute for International Affairs
