Introduction
Every year, millions of people are affected by devastation caused by tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin, including its coastline. Despite better predictions of intense cyclones and rainfalls with the latest technology and the continuous efforts of local authorities and humanitarian organisations to increase risk awareness, communities are struggling to mitigate against and recover from the physical and economic consequences of devastating cyclones. Mozambique and the French overseas department of Mayotte are useful case studies in assessing the societal readiness of their respective communities, as well as exploring their post-disaster recovery mechanisms in the aftermath of tropical cyclones in the SWIO.
Early Warning Systems (EWS) — The case of Mozambique
In March 2019, Cyclone Idai devastated central Mozambique, killing over 600 people and causing an estimated US$3-billion in losses. This cyclone caused severe floods and destroyed schools, roads, bridges, and energy and water treatment facilities.
Before the year ended, Mozambique began developing a comprehensive EWS [1] using cutting-edge technology, resilient infrastructure, and a coordinated emergency preparedness and response framework with support from the United Nations and the World Bank’s US$265-million Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program.[2] Mozambique’s government quickly began issuing meteorological warnings using satellite imagery and surface observational network data, which were disseminated through community radio stations and trained brigades to guide at-risk communities to safety before extreme weather.
In 2023, Cyclone Freddy, one of the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record, hit central Mozambique twice with 230 km/h winds. Cyclone Freddy made its first landfall on the southern coast of the country. It then did a loop back into the Mozambique Channel, before making its second landfall in northern Mozambique.[3] This time the outcome was different. With the new EWS, communities were evacuated to safe regions with enough food and water before the tragedy. The death toll was 198 people compared to nearly 600 after Cyclone Idai, and economic damages were estimated at $500 million, 83% lower than in 2019.[4] This significant decrease in human and economic losses illustrated that preparedness and the correct instruments can reduce the devastation of extreme climate-related natural hazards, saving lives and communities.
Approximately 60% of Mozambique’s population lives in low-lying coastal regions, which rely significantly on rain-fed agriculture, heightening the vulnerability of infrastructure and livelihoods. Coastal areas require different preparedness measures than communities more inland. Due to their proximity to the sea, coastal communities must secure fishing vessels and reinforce infrastructure to mitigate against coastal flooding. Mozambique has implemented nature-based solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction in these areas. The French Red Cross, together with other NGOs and local authorities, have funded disaster preparedness and emergency response training for local communities and have managed and restored the mangroves in the Zambezi Delta. [5] Without these mangroves, the delta’s coastline is more vulnerable to erosion, which can result in land loss and community displacement. Mangrove roots provide an invaluable natural protective function, without which coastal communities would be more vulnerable to harsh weather conditions and rising sea levels during cyclones.[6]
Regional Multi-hazard strategies
On the 23rd of March 2022 on World Meteorological Day, UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that, “…one third of the world’s people, mainly in least developed countries and small island developing states, are still not covered by early warning systems…the United Nations will spearhead new action to ensure every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems within five years.” [7]
However,, since 2020, under the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative, SWIO countries and island nations started a $4-million five-year project to improve operational forecasting and multi-hazard early warning systems. The project aims to improve the ability of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, and the Seychelles to send out early warnings. Although the meteorological and humanitarian sectors are enhancing their coordination, significant technical efforts remain necessary to establish a viable regional Early Warning System architecture.[8]
CREWS is a financing mechanism that provides funds for programs in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to implement early warning services. CREWS collaborates directly with these nations to enhance the availability of early warning systems. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the World Bank Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) assist LDC and SIDS countries in carrying out their national and regional programs. [9]
The Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, the Seychelles, and seven regional centres are collaborating using a to enhance alerts and responses to climatic, meteorological, and hydrological phenomena, including tropical cyclones, storm surges, flooding, drought, and other climatic extremes. The multi-hazard strategy engages the World Meteorological Organization Regional Centres, particularly the Regional Meteorological Specialised Centre (RSMC) in Réunion island — a French overseas department — which is specifically accredited for tropical cyclones and associated hazards such as wind, precipitation, and storm surge.
Data regarding risk and exposure will be produced for at-risk communities in the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique and the Seychelles to guarantee that the early warning systems provide insights on potential impacts, rather than solely on the extreme occurrences themselves. These nations will directly benefit from the systematic dissemination of trackable early warning messages, utilising SMS-based systems to connect communities in priority risk areas to the system.[10]
Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
SIDS are susceptible to extreme tropical cyclones, which can cause important damage to infrastructure, housing, and agriculture, notably between the months of November to April annually. The annual cost of damages from natural disasters in SIDS is between 1% to 8% of their total GDP. [11]
It is important to understand the impact of tropical cyclones on SIDS, which encounter distinct challenges because of their limited size, geographical isolation, and a narrow resource and export base. Studies by the UN have shown these island states are disproportionately susceptible to shocks that culminate in considerable economic and infrastructural damage, loss of life, and population displacement.[12]
A research paper by Eric Kulanthaivelu called “Tropical Cyclones and Economic Growth: the Importance of Considering Small Island Developing States[13],” posited that SIDS are small, isolated, and have limited local markets, therefore cyclones may be a bigger threat compared to countries with bigger land mass. The study found that SIDS often do well because of their coastlines, which are used for tourists and activities related to the sea, however, this same geography makes it difficult to diversify their economies, making SIDS reliant on trade with other countries. Tropical cyclones often become a national crisis for these countries, and because SIDS have higher amounts of public debt than other developing countries, it is more difficult to use fiscal policy to stimulate the economy post-disaster. However, as these island states are geographically small in land area and population, it can be easier for national governments to facilitate and mobilise aid and resources after disasters.
Cyclone Chido — The case of Mayotte
The archipelago of Mayotte is part of the French overseas department in the Mozambique Channel and therefore not technically considered part of SIDS, however it is still a cautionary tale for small island states. On December 14, 2024, tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall in Mayotte with gusts reaching 225 km/h, waves with an average height of five meters, and torrential rainfall of 176 mm in just 12 hours. Despite the accurate and early warnings put out 50 hours before the cyclone made landfall by Météo-France, the French meteorological administration, 39 deaths were attributed to the cyclone, the strongest the population experienced in 90 years.[14]
Mayotte’s emergency preparedness was criticized in the aftermath of the disaster. The local government failed to educate the population about cyclone safety measures and lacked evacuation plans with designated shelters and transportation arrangements that could have saved lives. “If you don’t have that system in place, then people don’t leave their homes,” stated Emily Wilkinson, the Director of the Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative from the think tank ODI. [15] Pre-existing vulnerabilities, such as temporary shelters in informal settlements, left 100,000 people, mostly illegal migrants, exposed and homeless. It is estimated that one-third of the population was displaced.[16] Following his second visit to the island in April 2025 post-Chido, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a €3.2-billion plan to rebuild Mayotte. The money, which will come from French, European Union, and foreign financial sources, is to be disbursed over six years, from 2025 to 2031 and aims to boost the local economy and improve the fight against illegal housing, illegal migrants from the neighbouring islands of Comoros and crime. A bill with the plan will be voted on by the French National Assembly by the summer.[17]
Non-governmental organizations were mobilised to assist the population in the aftermath of the cyclone, however Mayotte’s remote location poses logistical and transportation challenges for the island to receive humanitarian aid in a timely manner. Réunion island, the closest French overseas department, is about 870 miles from Mayotte and was used as a supply base for rescue operations in the aftermath of Cyclone Chido.[18]
Legal framework and Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Strategies
Legal impediments can also hinder the effectiveness of international relief operations in SWIO nations. Inadequate rules can result in uncoordinated, costly, and ineffective relief efforts for communities and national organisations. The Indian Ocean Regional Intervention Platform (PIROI) published study of legal frameworks on SWIO countries and island states[19] that noted that climate change is making tropical cyclones more intense, which in turn makes it more difficult to deliver humanitarian aid to the places that need it the most.
Another factor in the delayed delivery of aid is the burgeoning number of non-state actors engaged during disasters in the SWIO. Instead of focusing on managing and delivering assistance, local governments must deal with non-governmental organizations (NGOs), United Nations agencies, international groups such as the Red Cross and Red Crescent, and private enterprises, all trying to help. It is essential for the SWIO countries to be led by appropriate legal frameworks that govern disaster risk management (DRM) initiatives.
Although most of the SWIO countries and the Mascarene islands have updated and strengthened their DRM policies and regulations, many of them do not cover all of the regulatory issues that come up during disaster aid operations. The governments of the SWIO nations need greater political to move DRM legal frameworks up their political agenda to meet the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 targets set out by the UN office for Disaster Risk Reduction.[20]
Conclusion
SWIO countries and islands have taken significant strides in recent years in improving their early warning systems through regional collaborations with non-state actors, both at a political and technical level. With tropical cyclones becoming more unpredictable and more devastating, SWIO countries need to continuously equip their populations more effectively to help mitigate against floods and destruction to shelters. In the long term, governments will find it necessary to increase the funds allocated to the management of natural disasters in their national budget. Finding the balance between investing in risk disaster management programs and financing post disaster reconstruction will be the key.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.
References
[1] Mozambique takes strides towards Early Warnings for All. (2024, September 10). World Meteorological Organization. https://wmo.int/media/news/mozambique-takes-strides-towards-early-warnings-all
[2] Development Projects: Mozambique Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program - p166437. (n.d.). World Bank. https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P166437
[3] Tropical Cyclone Freddy - Center for Disaster Philanthropy. (2023, July 31). Center for Disaster Philanthropy. https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/tropical-cyclone-freddy/
[4] The triple dividends of early warning systems and climate services. (2025, April 1). World Meteorological Organization. https://wmo.int/media/news/triple-dividends-of-early-warning-systems-and-climate-services?book=22533
[5] Piroi. (2021, April 22). Nouveau projet de gestion des risques de catastrophes au Mozambique. PIROI - Plateforme D’Intervention Régionale De L’Océan Indien. https://piroi.croix-rouge.fr/nouveau-projet-de-gestion-des-risques-de-catastrophes-au-mozambique/
[6] Hammond, N. (2022, October 25). What Happens if Mangroves are Destroyed? MANG. https://www.manggear.com/blogs/stories/what-happens-if-mangroves-are-destroyed
[7] United Nations. (n.d.). Early warnings for all | United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/early-warnings-for-all
[8] South-West Indian Ocean – CREWS. (n.d.). https://crews-initiative.org/project/supporting-regional-cooperation-strengthen-seamless-operational-forecasting-and-multi/
[9] CREWS Contributing Members. (2021). Delivering at scale 2021-2025. https://crews-initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Short_Version_of_the_Operating_Plan_0.pdf
[10] South West Indian Ocean countries strengthen early warning systems. (2023, March 22). World Meteorological Organization. https://wmo.int/media/news/south-west-indian-ocean-countries-strengthen-early-warning-systems
[11] About Small Island Developing States (SIDS) | Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (n.d.-b). https://sdgs.un.org/smallislands/about-small-island-developing-states
[12] UNEP & Small Island Developing States (SIDS). (n.d.). UNEP - UN Environment Programme. https://www.unep.org/topics/ocean-seas-and-coasts/small-island-developing-states/unep-small-island-developing-states
[13] Kulanthaivelu, E. (2023) ‘Tropical cyclones and economic growth: The importance of considering Small Island Developing States’, Revue d’économie politique, Vol. 133(5), pp. 693–740. doi:10.3917/redp.335.0693.
[14] Tropical cyclone Chido devastates Mayotte in Indian Ocean. (n.d.). World Meteorological Organization.https://wmo.int/media/news/tropical-cyclone-chido-devastates-mayotte-indian-ocean
[15] Lo, J. (2025, February 8). After Cyclone Chido, France accused of neglecting climate threat to “fragile” Mayotte. Climate Home News. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/12/20/after-cyclone-chido-france-accused-of-neglecting-climate-threat-to-fragile-mayotte/
[16] Situation Overview: Overview of the impact of Cyclone Chido on Mayotte (18/12/2024) - Mayotte (France). (2024, December 20). ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/mayotte-france/situation-overview-overview-impact-cyclone-chido-mayotte-18122024
[17] France, & France. (2025, April 22). Macron announces €3 billion plan to “rebuild” cyclone-hit Mayotte. France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/france/20250422-macron-announces-%E2%82%AC3-billion-plan-to-rebuild-mayotte-after-devastating-cyclone
[18] Savage, R. (2024, December 16). Mayotte cyclone: health services in ruins as rescuers race to reach survivors. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/16/mayotte-cyclone-health-services-in-ruins-with-death-toll-feared-to-reach-thousands
[19] Croix-Rouge française - PIROI - Plateforme d’intervention régionale de l’océan Indien. (n.d.). IDRL in the South-West Indian Ocean: Study of legal frameworks to facilitate and regulate international disaster response in: Union of the Comoros, Mayotte and Reunion, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, and Tanzania. https://disasterlaw.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/media/disaster_law/2020-12/IDRL_OI_Summary_EN.pdf
[20] Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. (2015, June 29). UNDRR. https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030
