Although global deaths from terrorism declined by 13% in 2024 and the total number of attacks dropped slightly, these figures mask a broader and more troubling development: more countries are experiencing terrorism. A total of 66 countries experienced at least one terrorist incident in 2024, the highest figure recorded since 2018. This is reflected in the increase in the number of countries with deteriorating terrorism scores.[1]
While traditional jihadist actors such as the Islamic State (IS), Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and al-Shabaab remain lethal forces, terrorism has become more decentralized. New operational models have emerged, in which low-tech, high-frequency attacks, often perpetrated by lone actors or small cells, have displaced the centralized, mass-casualty tactics that defined earlier periods of terrorism.
In the West, particularly in Europe and North America, the rise of ideologically diverse lone actors represents one of the most significant evolutions in the threat landscape. Attacks by such individuals increased by over 60% in 2024, and many of these were carried out by individuals radicalized online.
The most transformative development in contemporary terrorism is the integration of advanced technologies into the operational and strategic toolkits of violent actors. Terrorist groups now regularly use encrypted messaging apps, artificial intelligence-generated deepfakes, and cryptocurrency for fundraising and propaganda dissemination. The weaponization of AI poses a growing threat. IS has already demonstrated how to use AI-generated videos to incite fear and evade content moderation, while drone technology has been used effectively in both the Middle East and Africa.[2] The 2025 AI-generated threat video targeting a concert in Vienna exemplified how extremist actors can manipulate digital media to bypass traditional security protocols. In this particular case, the video was digitally fabricated using generative AI tools to simulate a credible threat against a high-profile music concert at Vienna’s Ernst Happel Stadium, which was scheduled to host over 40,000 attendees for an international pop artist’s European tour.[3] The deepfake video featured what appeared to be a masked spokesperson from a known jihadist group, delivering threats in fluent German and English, and referencing local landmarks and previous attacks in Europe to enhance credibility. The clip circulated widely on Telegram channels, fringe forums, and private messaging apps before being picked up by mainstream platforms, causing public panic and leading Austrian authorities to heighten security measures and temporarily cancel the event.
Digital ecosystems also enable faster and more anonymous radicalization. Youth populations are especially vulnerable, as social media platforms, online gaming forums, and messaging apps become conduits for ideological recruitment. The speed with which individuals now move from exposure to action, sometimes in mere weeks, presents a formidable challenge for law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Radicalization is increasingly driven not by coherent ideology, but by hybrid belief systems that blend religion, nationalism, conspiracy theories, and personal grievance.[4]
Regional Hotspots and the Geography of Violence
The Sahel region in Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the most acute epicenter of global terrorism. In 2024, it accounted for over half of all deaths linked to terrorist activity. Countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger continue to experience high levels of violence perpetrated by groups like JNIM and ISGS. The collapse of state authority, the erosion of governance institutions, and intercommunal violence, often linked to resource competition and climate-induced displacement, create a fertile environment for extremist mobilization. In Niger alone, terrorism-related deaths rose by 94%, marking the most significant increase globally.[5] Coastal West African states such as Togo and Benin are also increasingly vulnerable, as jihadist actors extend their operational reach beyond the traditional Sahelian belt.
South Asia remains another hotspot for violent extremism. The resurgence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has led to twice the number of attacks in 2024, resulting in a 90% increase in deaths. The group’s renewed strength is tied to both the instability stemming from the Taliban’s return to power in neighboring Afghanistan and the difficulty of the adjacent states to effectively counter its operations.[6] Although Afghanistan saw a relative decline in terrorism-related deaths, the enduring presence of ISIS-Khorasan and other anti-Taliban groups continues to pose a significant risk.
A closer examination of the major terrorist organizations operating in 2025 reveals both continuity and innovation in their strategies and objectives. The Islamic State remains the most operationally widespread, conducting attacks in over 20 countries and retaining a lethal presence in Syria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. While the number of deaths attributed to IS declined, the group committed 6% more attacks, signalling a shift in tactics toward more frequent, possibly smaller-scale operations. ISIS-K continues to pose a particular threat in South and Central Asia, with persistent intent to target Western interests.[7]
JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in the Sahel, was responsible for 1,454 deaths in 2024, representing a 46% year-on-year increase. The group has not only increased its lethality but also expanded its territorial footprint into coastal West African states. JNIM’s capacity to blend military confrontation with ideological governance in ungoverned spaces makes it an especially challenging actor to counter. Meanwhile, al-Shabaab, though experiencing a decline in attacks and fatalities, remains a formidable force in Somalia, where recent government offensives have partially degraded its territorial control.[8]
Forecasting the Future: Terrorists To Exploit Emerging Instability Using New Models, Tools
Efforts to predict future terrorism trends remain constrained by the unpredictable nature of the phenomenon itself. The decentralization of terrorist groups, the prevalence of lone actors, and the rapid pace of technological change all undermine traditional intelligence-gathering and threat-assessment models. Many attacks remain unclaimed, data on foiled plots is inconsistent, and the ideological motivations of perpetrators are often fluid and multi-layered. Furthermore, geopolitical events, such as regime collapses, civil wars, or major elections, can serve as catalysts for sudden spikes in extremist activity, making long-term forecasting inherently fragile.[9]
The future trajectory of terrorism will be shaped by several interrelated developments. Digital terrorism is likely to expand, with extremist actors deploying AI and cyber tools not only for propaganda but potentially for disrupting critical infrastructure. Climate-induced instability will serve as both a recruitment driver and a destabilizing force, especially in fragile regions like the Sahel and South Asia. Finally, the convergence of terrorism with organized crime, through arms trafficking, smuggling, and illicit finance, will further blur the lines between ideological and profit-driven violence.[10]
Terrorism in 2025 is not a static threat but a multifaceted and adaptive phenomenon. While traditional jihadist groups continue to pose substantial risks, the proliferation of lone actors, hybrid entities, and digital extremists marks a new phase in political violence, one that is more fragmented, less predictable, but no less dangerous. A combination of high-quality data, theoretical rigor, and technological foresight is essential for staying ahead of this evolving threat landscape.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.
[1] Institute for Economics & Peace. Global Terrorism Index 2025: Measuring The Impact of Terrorism, Sydney, March 2025. Available from: http://visionofhumanity.org/resources
[2] UNCCT/UNERI (2021) Countering Terrorism Online with Artificial Intelligence. United Nations, New York,Countering Terrorism Online with AI - UNCCT-UNICRI Report.pdf
[3] Mendez II, Moises, ‘Taylor Swift’s Vienna Concerts Cancelled After Police Say They Uncovered a Planned Terrorist Attack’, Time Magazine, August 7, 2024, Taylor Swift's Vienna Concerts Cancelled After Alleged Terrorist Attack Threat | TIME
[4] Isabel Jones et al (2023) Young guns: Understanding a new generation of extremist radicalization in the United States, Institute for Strategic Dialogue, Young-guns_Understandings-a-new-generation-of-extremist-radicalization-in-the-US.pdf
[5] Center for Preventive Action, ‘Violent Extremism in the Sahel’, Global Conflict Tracker, October 23, 2024, Violent Extremism in the Sahel | Global Conflict Tracker
[6] Gul, Ayaz, ‘UN: Afghan Taliban increase support for anti-Pakistan TTP terrorists’, VOA, July 11, 2024, UN: Afghan Taliban increase support for anti-Pakistan TTP terrorists
[7] Karr, Liam and Brian Carter ‘The Islamic State’s Global Long Game and Resurgence in Syria Poses an Evolved Threat to the West’, Institute for the Study of War, January 9, 2025, The Islamic State’s Global Long Game and Resurgence in Syria Poses an Evolved Threat to the West | Institute for the Study of War
[8] Institute for Economics & Peace. Global Terrorism Index 2025: Measuring The Impact of Terrorism, Sydney, March 2025. Available from: http://visionofhumanity.org/resources
[9] Sinai, J. (2022). Assessing the Academic Study of Counterterrorism Since 9/11 in Understanding and Preventing Terrorism. American Behavioral Scientist, 68(2), 241-260. https://doi.org/10.1177/00027642221108945
[10] UNCCT/UNERI (2021) Countering Terrorism Online with Artificial Intelligence. United Nations, New York,Countering Terrorism Online with AI - UNCCT-UNICRI Report.pdf
