Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Washington DC on August 8, 2025 and signed a declaration aimed at a peace deal at the White House in the presence of the US President Donald Trump.[1] The agreement marks a truly historic moment, as the past several decades have been marred by war, confrontation, and stalemate between the two nations. The region of South Caucasus, despite its significant economic and cultural potential, has been damaged for decades by the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the area Nagorno-Karabakh region. The first steps towards peace have already been taken: Azerbaijan removed all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia.[2] However, both countries will need to adopt, ratify, and implement the agreement domestically. Several unresolved issues remain, and against this backdrop, the geopolitical landscape of the region, including the positions of the regional players needs to be explored.
First, this is yet another sign that both countries are gradually moving out of Russia’s sphere of influence. Armenia’s distancing from Russian influence could be related to the lack of responsiveness of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization to fulfill its security commitments towards Armenia. The step that led Armenia, in the words of its President “to diversify its relations in the security sector.”[3] Tensions between the two countries are evident in the media and in the exchange of political statements at multiple levels. Signaling a geopolitical shift, recently Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently announced that Armenia is ready to explore the possibility of joining the European Union and to initiate the relevant negotiations.[4] The Armenian Parliament has endorsed relevant bill.[5] Although the aspiration causes discontent in the Russian ruling circles, as expressed numerous time by the politicians from the Russian Federation.[6]Moreover, the Prime Minister publicly criticized representatives of the Armenian Church, accusing them of being agents of Russian influence.[7] Nevertheless, Armenia remains a member of the Russia led Eurasian Economic Union. [8]
In addition, in the preliminary declaration signed in Washington DC, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to appeal to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to stop the so- called Minsk group.[9] The group created in 1992 and co-chaired by France, Russia and the US aimed to solve the conflict between the two states, however it could not achieve much due to constant tension between the co-Chairs.[10] This is another step in the restriction of Russia’s influence in the region.
On the other hand, tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have also escalated recently. Just weeks ago, President Ilham Aliyev declared his intent to file a lawsuit against Russia in an international court over the downing of an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft. Moreover, mistreatment and death of Azerbaijani citizens and members of their diaspora in Russia intensified diplomatic tensions between the two countries.[11]While in Azerbaijan, individuals suspected of links to Russian intelligence networks were exposed and detained.[12]
Second, major innovation in the peace declaration is the transnational infrastructure project dubbed as Zangezur Corridor. The route that connects the territory of Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic shall proceed through Armenia. Armenia has agreed to allow the US to develop the territory for 99 years and to name it after President Donald Trump as Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. The TRIPP opens up a new avenue for the further development of the Middle corridor. Middle Corridor, global transportation route that connects China with Europe is a cornerstone of economic independence of the countries alongside Corridor as well as a stepping stone for China’s independence from the Trans-Siberian Transport Route through the Russian Federation.
The opening of the Zangezur Corridor and the deepening of Azerbaijan-Turkey relations are strengthening Baku and Ankara’s positions in the region, further diminishing Russian and Iranian influence. Iran has made its skepticism towards the project known early on. Series of statements made by various representatives of the ruling party, express Iran’s displeasure with the increased US involvement in the region. One party went so far to state, that “Aliyev and Pashinyan on Zelensky’s Road to Misery.”[13] First, Iran could resist growing influence of Turkey in the South Caucasus, facilitated by opening of the new route connecting Central Asia with Turkey. Second, as Armenia’s relations with its neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan were severed, Armenia has been exclusively dependent on its economic and trade relations with Iran and own role in the North- South Transport Corridor between Russia and Iran. However, Armenia’s dependence on its relations with Iran for transportation will be reduced with the opening of new transportation and economic capabilities through the Zangezur Corridor. Moreover, the Corridor strengthens the alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey, which Iran might perceive as a threat to its regional dominance.
However, in September 2025, Iran’s President Mahmoud Pezeshkyan travelled to Yerevan to meet with the President of Armenia to receive assurances that the Corridor would not be used to alienate Iran and against Iranian interests in the region.[14]
Moreover, if Zangezur Corridor is implemented— through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and then into Europe — it may serve as an alternative route to the existing Middle Corridor project and would bypass Georgia entirely. Georgia has been seen to lose its status of the staunchest US ally in the region and a champion of regional connectivity projects.[15]
Another issue to be settled prior to turning the Declaration into a binding treaty and ratified by both states is references to Nagorno-Karabakh in the Armenian constitution. Azerbaijan maintains that a reference to the province of Nagorno- Karabakh should be removed from the Armenian Constitution. [16]In fact, the Armenian Constitution references a Declaration of Independence, which in turn mentions the province. Pashinyan has already indicated his willingness to work on these amendments, noting that if the Constitutional Court finds a contradiction between the peace treaty and the Constitution, the Constitution shall be amended. [17]
Another matter that shall impact the potential ratification of the TRIPP peace treaty in Armenia is the upcoming elections in Armenia. Armenia is facing a Parliamentary election in June 2026. The position of the Prime Minister and his ruling party will be subject to a democracy test. While according to International Republican Institute poll, the popularity of Nikol Pashinyan has dropped to 13%, however there do not seem to be challengers on the horizon. He continues to lead the list of the most trusted politicians. Although the election is several months away, the campaign has already started and the political climate has started to demonstrate certain tensions. One of the newest contenders for country’s leadership, Russian- Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan was arrested in June 2025 on the charges of attempted overthrow of the government. His candidacy has been dubbed as a possible scenario for Russian interference in Armenian elections.[18]
In conclusion, although the Washington Peace Conference and ensuing Peace Declaration between Armenia-Azerbaijan was hailed as a major breakthrough for regional peace and economic relations, several hurdles on the way to the lasting peace need to be overcome.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/09/azerbaijan-and-armenia-sign-peace-deal-at-white-house-that-creates-a-trump-route-in-region
[2] https://www.arabnews.com/node/2619671/world
[3] https://eurasianet.org/armenian-pm-sees-no-advantage-in-russian-troop-presence-as-ties-with-moscow-deteriorate-further
[4] https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-floats-eu-referendum-amid-split-with-russia/
[5] https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-european-union-membership-accession-nikol-pashinyan/
[6] https://am.sputniknews.ru/20251007/armeniya--nash-soyuznik-zhizn-vse-rasstavit-po-mestam-dzhabarov-o-stremlenii-erevana-v-es---94346067.html
[7] https://am.sputniknews.ru/20251007/armeniya--nash-soyuznik-zhizn-vse-rasstavit-po-mestam-dzhabarov-o-stremlenii-erevana-v-es---94346067.html
[8] https://am.sputniknews.ru/20251007/armeniya.--nash-soyuznik-zhizn-vse-rasstavit-po-mestam-dzhabarov-o-stremlenii-erevana-v-es---94346067.html
[9] https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2025JointDeclaration.AzerbaijanArmenia.pdf
[10] https://www.rferl.org/a/osce-minsk-group-legacy-end-future-implications/33519655.html
[11] https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-russia-police-raid-deaths-caucasus-diplomacy/33460707.html
[12] https://kyivindependent.com/2-russian-fsb-agents-detained-in-azerbaijan-amid-searches-in-office-of-russian-state-controlled-media-sputnik/
[13] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202508105642
[14] https://www.setav.org/en/from-confrontation-to-caution-where-will-the-zangezur-corridor-take-iran
[15] https://jamestown.org/program/consequences-for-georgia-after-the-peace-declaration-between-azerbaijan-and-armenia/
[16] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2025)779170
[17] https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2024/11/13/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/
[18] https://jam-news.net/moscow-attempting-ivanishvili-2-0-operation-in-armenia-says-analyst/
