Israel’s missile strike on Iran on June 13 rapidly and profoundly shaped Africa’s political landscape, economic stability, and security environment. Like other external crises, including the Russia-Ukraine and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, this distant war sent shockwaves far beyond the Middle East. Although most analyses overlooked this, Africa emerged as a profoundly affected theater of secondary effects. The fallout manifested in tangible ways, from volatile energy prices and reactive financial markets to significant trade disruptions and an intensification of proxy warfare, presenting strategic opportunities and critical lessons for the continent.
Unfolding Economic Impacts: Fuel, Freight, and Fiscal Strain
Economically, the immediate impact was sharply felt. The conflict triggered a significant spike in global oil prices, with Brent crude rising to $77 per barrel from $69.5—an 11% increase in the hours following the initial strikes, before slightly falling.[1] For Africa’s numerous fuel-importing nations, this translated into immediate and acute inflationary pressures. In Nigeria, for instance, petrol prices surged to between 945 Naira to 975 Naira per litre,[2] severely straining household budgets and exacerbating existing cost-of-living crises. These ripple effects permeated critical sectors, including transportation, manufacturing, and power generation, threatening the fragile post-pandemic economic recovery across the continent. Egypt, a nation strategically positioned and reliant on regional energy flows, suffered a major blow when Israel shut down the Tamar gas field, cutting off 800 million cubic feet per day of gas imports.[3] This abrupt halt forced Cairo to activate emergency energy plans and suspend industrial supplies, underscoring the deep vulnerability of key African economies to regional instability.
Furthermore, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea became a critical economic choke point, forcing some oil tanker owners and managers to pause offering their vessels for Middle Eastern routes,[4] with others rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This added up to ten days to delivery times and substantially increased insurance and fuel costs. The consequences were immediate and severe: disrupted supply chains for essential goods, including food and fertilizers, particularly impacting East Africa where hunger and poverty are already acute. With 15% of global maritime trade historically transiting the Suez Canal, the halving of traffic led to a 6.7% drop in sub-Saharan port calls, straining the availability of vital staples and inputs for agriculture. The confluence of rising fuel and food prices threatens to deepen humanitarian crises and reverse hard-won development gains across the continent.
Financial markets also reacted swiftly and negatively. South Africa’s rand, stocks and government bonds depreciated by 1.6%, snapping weeks of gains as investors sought safer havens, leading to capital flight from African markets following Israeli military strikes on Iran.[5]
Security Imperatives: Proxy Warfare and Maritime Vulnerabilities
The conflict’s security implications for Africa were equally profound, particularly intensifying proxy warfare in Sudan. Iran’s delivery of Mohajer-6 and Ababil drones to the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) dramatically shifted the balance in the ongoing civil war, enabling aerial strikes against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).[6] This marked a significant escalation in Tehran’s military footprint on the continent, underscoring its willingness to leverage African conflicts for strategic gain. Multiple independent reports confirmed the continued delivery and combat use of Iranian Mohajer-6 UAVs by the SAF for both reconnaissance and lethal strikes, helping them regain control of key infrastructure and bolstering their aerial capabilities through the supply of combat drones, ammunition, and technical training.
Historically, Tehran has viewed Africa, especially the Horn of Africa and Red Sea ports, as crucial for its strategic depth and as potential routes for arms distribution to its proxies in the Middle East, such as the Houthis in Yemen and previously Palestinian militants. Sudan’s Port of Sudan, in particular, offers Iran a potential naval observation post at the Red Sea’s gateway, making its deepening military cooperation through weapon supplies and drone variants a source of enduring leverage in this vital maritime corridor.
Geopolitical Reverberations: A continent under pressure
More critically, the Israel–Iran conflict intensified great-power competition on the continent. African nations responded with a spectrum of positions, reflecting their diverse foreign policy orientations and strategic interests. Countries like South Africa[7] and Sudan[8] condemned Israel’s airstrikes, citing violations of Iranian sovereignty. In contrast, Morocco, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon remained silent, prioritizing their growing diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. Meanwhile, nations such as Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt adopted neutral stances, calling for de-escalation and dialogue. The AU itself issued a cautious statement urging restraint, underscoring the continent’s preference for multilateral diplomacy over alignment.[9] This fragmented response vividly illustrated Africa’s complex balancing act between Western alliances, Middle Eastern partnerships, and its enduring non-alignment traditions.
Iran took the opportunity to enhance its diplomatic engagement across Africa, utilizing state media and diplomatic channels to promote a narrative of solidarity with African nations in the context of broader geopolitical tensions. Through its media platforms, Tehran highlighted African voices expressing concern over developments in the Middle East, and its envoys engaged with regional governments to encourage official statements of support. For instance, during a briefing with The Monitor (Uganda), Iran’s Ambassador to Uganda urged the Ugandan government, as a member of the OIC, UN, and Non-Aligned Movement, to issue a formal condemnation of the Israeli military actions, and extended this appeal to other African nations.[10] These efforts reflect Iran’s strategic use of soft power to reinforce its international standing and counter diplomatic isolation.
Simultaneously, other regional powers moved to challenge Iran’s influence and expand their presence in Africa contributing to a competitive landscape. Turkey, for example, has deepened its engagement with Somalia through a series of high-level meetings and strategic agreements. In April 2025, the Somali President met with Turkey’s Foreign Minister for the fourth time, following the signing of a maritime and defense cooperation agreement in February[11] and an oil and gas partnership in March.[12] The deployment of Turkish naval forces in Somali waters is expected to support maritime security, including efforts to curb illegal fishing and address piracy, [13] while also reinforcing Turkey’s growing influence in the region. Given Somalia’s largely untapped oil and gas reserves (up to 30 billion barrels), these agreements hold immense potential for expanding Turkey-Somalia security and economic cooperation, effectively displacing Iran’s interests and influence in the Horn of Africa. The European Union also issued categorical advisories warning African capitals against expanding ties with Iran. The EU High Representative publicly acknowledged concerns over Iranian retaliation, stressing that partner states, including those in Africa, must pursue diplomatic solutions and avoid emboldening Tehran’s escalation, linking continued EU-Africa cooperation to shared security priorities.[14]
Opportunities for Africa: Strategic Autonomy and Resilience Building
Despite the significant disruptions, these hostilities also presented strategic opportunities for Africa to strengthen regional cooperation in advancing security and assert its voice in global affairs. The rerouting of global shipping, for example, exposed Africa’s maritime vulnerabilities, and highlighted the critical importance of strengthening naval capabilities and regional maritime cooperation to safeguard Africa’s economic lifelines, particularly in piracy-prone areas like the Gulf of Guinea and the Horn of Africa.
Additionally, the threat of proxy warfare, exemplified by Iranian drones in Sudan, underscored the pressing need for robust continental crisis-response capabilities. The continued external interference in Sudan highlights the imperative for the African Union to operationalize the Africa Standby Force (ASF)[15] with rapid deployment capabilities to manage external spillovers and internal conflicts more effectively. African states must enhance conflict resolution mechanisms and actively resist the external militarization of domestic disputes.
The hostilities positioned the AU to act as a neutral mediator between Israel and Iran. The AU’s call for restraint and condemnation of violence from both sides reinforced Africa’s image as a constructive, peace-oriented player in international affairs. African leaders seized the moment to elevate Africa’s role as a normative leader on global peace and security issues, by emphasizing international law, sovereignty, and peaceful resolution.
Critical Lessons for Africa’s Future Resilience to External Geopolitical Crises
The experience of navigating the Israel-Iran hostilities between 13-24 June offers several crucial lessons for Africa’s long-term resilience to external conflicts and geopolitics. Though geographically remote, the war’s immediate and profound effects on African economies, trade routes, and security dynamics reinforces the critical lesson that in a globalized world, African nations must better anticipate and prepare for the ripple effects of external geopolitical crises, especially those involving major energy corridors or global powers.
The spike in oil prices and disruption of Red Sea shipping routes exposed Africa’s vulnerability to global supply chain shocks. This signals the imperative of investing in renewable energy, developing robust regional trade corridors, and establishing strategic reserves for economic resilience. Relatedly, over-reliance on commodity exports makes African economies inherently vulnerable to global price fluctuations.[16] A concerted effort towards economic diversification, industrialization, and value addition is not merely desirable but critical to building stable and resilient economies.
African countries that maintained neutral or measured responses successfully preserved their strategic relationships with both Western and Middle Eastern actors. This underscores the enduring value of non-alignment and multilateral diplomacy in navigating complex international crises. It reinforces the position that proactive, rather than reactive, diplomacy is essential to manage relationships with competing global powers.
More importantly, reliance on external security guarantees is inherently risky. The 12-day crisis and Iran’s continued involvement in Sudan underscored the imperative for Africa to strengthen its own regional security mechanisms, enhance peacekeeping capabilities, and address internal conflicts with homegrown solutions.
Conclusion
The Israel-Iran hostilities have served as a powerful reminder of Africa’s profound interconnectedness with global geopolitical dynamics. From fragmented responses and strategic silence to deepening Iranian diplomatic offensives, oil price shocks, inflationary pressures, trade disruptions, market volatility, and the intensification of proxy warfare and great power competition, the hostilities exposed a complex web of challenges the continent had to carefully navigate.
However, these significant challenges also highlighted critical opportunities for the continent to assert its voice in global crises. By thoroughly learning from the lessons of the 12-day Israel-Iran war and pursuing proactive and principled foreign policies, African nations can emerge stronger, more resilient, and more influential on the world stage, ensuring its future is shaped by its own aspirations and strategic choices, rather than being dictated by external realities.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.
[1] Trendtype (2025). The Impact of the Israel-Iran crisis on African consumer markets. Available: https://trendtype.com/insights/israel-iran-war-impact-on-africa/; Busso, R. (18 June 2025). Oil tanker market signals more Middle East energy disruption ahead. Available: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-tanker-market-signals-more-middle-east-energy-disruption-ahead-2025-06-18/
[2] Ariemu, O. (25 June 2025). Israel-Iran war: Nigerian fuel prices to drop on easing global crude cost – Marketers. Available: https://dailypost.ng/2025/06/25/israel-iran-war-nigerian-fuel-prices-to-drop-on-easing-global-crude-cost-marketers/
[3] Calik, A. (15 June 2025). Israel takes gas fields offline after Iran attack. Available: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2699171-israel-takes-gas-fields-off-line-after-iran-attack
[4] Cheong, S. & Chin, Y. (16 June 2025). Oil freight rates jump in Mideast as Iran conflict fans risk. Available: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-16/oil-shippers-pause-offers-to-middle-east-as-conflict-intensifies?sref=zr5Avzr1&embedded-checkout=true
[5] Reuters (13 June 2025). South African assets slump in risk-off trade, snapping weeks of gains. Available: https://shorturl.at/WKp5E
[6] Agenzia Nova (23 June 2024). Eritrea Increases Support for Regular Army in Sudan, Sends Weapons to Port Sudan via Asmara. Available: https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/Eritrea-increases-support-for-regular-army-in-Sudan-send-weapons-to-Port-Sudan-via-Asmara/
[7] DIRCO (13 June 2025). South Africa condemns Israeli attacks on Iran. Available: https://dirco.gov.za/south-africa-condemns-israeli-attacks-on-iran/
[8] Radio Tamazuj (14 June 2025). Sudan condemns Israeli strike on Iran. Available: https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/sudan-condemns-israeli-strike-on-iran
[9] African Union (13 June 2025). Press Statement by the chairperson of the African Union Commission on the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. Available: https://au.int/ar/node/44933
[10] Monitor (20 June 2025). Iran asks Uganda, Africa to condemn Israeli strikes. Available: https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/iran-asks-uganda-africa-to-condemn-israeli-strikes-5088540
[11] Commonspace EU (2024). Turkey to take over Somalia’s naval defence for a decade. Available: https://www.commonspace.eu/news/turkey-take-over-somalias-naval-defence-decade
[12] AP (7 March 2024). Somalia strike an oil and gas cooperation deal for the Horn of Africa. Available:
https://apnews.com/article/turkey-somalia-sign-oil-gas-agreements-312fcdf58789767f94b6c36a3444faec
[13]Demirtas, T. (4 March 2024). Turkish Influence Expands: Turkey-Somalia Maritime Agreement in the Horn of Africa. Available: https://politicstoday.org/turkey-presence-in-the-horn-of-africa-somalias-maritime-agreement/
[14] Bicer, A. (23 June 2025). EU acknowledges ‘huge concerns’ surrounding Iran retaliation, regional escalation. Available: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/eu-acknowledges-huge-concerns-surrounding-potential-iran-retaliation-regional-escalation/3609292
[15] African Union (2019). The African Standby Force (ASF). Available: https://www.peaceau.org/en/page/82-african-standby-force-asf-amani-africa-1
[16] UNCTAD (2025). Africa’s vulnerability to global shocks highlights need for stronger regional trade. Available: https://unctad.org/news/africas-vulnerability-global-shocks-highlights-need-stronger-regional-trade#:~:text=Commodity%20dependence%20compounds%20vulnerabilities,least%2060%25%20of%20export%20earnings
