Greenland has long been perceived as a remote and sparsely populated territory, however, its strategic importance has grown exponentially in recent years due to shifting geopolitical dynamics, climate change, and competition over Arctic resources.[1] From a geostrategic, economic, and security perspective, Greenland is emerging as a critical zone of interest for global powers, including the United States, China, Russia, and European nations.[2] Greenland is not just a geographic entity but also geostrategic fulcrum with implications for defense, energy security, and global competition.
The Forgotten Becomes the Focus: Greenland’s Geographical Importance
Russia and China have expanded their Arctic footprint. Russia already controls roughly half of the Arctic coastline and has revitalized old Soviet bases, constructed new ones, and deployed advanced weaponry in the region. Moscow views the Arctic as a core interest, particularly as melting ice enables greater maritime and energy activity.[3]
China, despite lacking any Arctic territory, has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and is increasingly involved in Arctic governance and investment. It has invested in scientific research, built new icebreakers, and formed partnerships with Russia.[4]
For the U.S. and its allies, Greenland is thus a buffer against strategic encroachment and a bulwark for maintaining the Arctic’s security architecture.
Greenland’s value begins with its location. It straddles the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) gap, a crucial naval chokepoint that has long served as a line of maritime surveillance and defense against potential threats coming from the North Atlantic. During the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) monitored Soviet submarines navigating through this corridor.
At the heart of the U.S. military presence in Greenland is Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), located in northwest Greenland. The U.S. base houses a key radar station for North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). This installation plays a critical role in global missile early-warning systems, space surveillance, and communications.[5]
A Burgeoning Bonanza: As Ice Melts, Island’s Economic Outlook Bubbles
Beyond defense, Greenland offers immense economic potential. As global demand surges for critical minerals essential to green energy, defense systems, and advanced technologies, Greenland offers an unexploited treasure trove.
Several geological surveys indicate significant deposits of rare earth elements (REEs), critical minerals essential for modern technologies like electric vehicles, wind turbines, and smartphones. Greenland possesses vast untapped deposits of rare earth elements, uranium, zinc, iron ore, and hydrocarbons. As global demand for these resources surges, Greenland could become a crucial supplier, offering an alternative to current dominant players.[6]
Greenland’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is rich in fish stocks, particularly shrimp and cod. As global fish supplies dwindle, control over these waters becomes a long-term economic and food security asset.[7]
Climate change has also become a strategic opportunity for Arctic stakeholders. The accelerated melting of polar ice is making previously inaccessible areas open to navigation and resource extraction. The emergence of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), along Russia’s Arctic coast, could shorten shipping routes between Asia and Europe by up to two weeks or 40% shorter than through the Suez Canal. This would enhance the strategic utility of Arctic ports and increase the value of Greenland’s proximity to these corridors.[8]
This transformation also means that maritime domain awareness and control over new shipping lanes are becoming vital. In this context, Greenland acts as a northern sentry and logistical hub for nations seeking to control emerging Arctic trade and energy routes.
Greenland and the Gulf: Why the Arctic Matters for the GCC States
As global power dynamics shift, and climate change transforms the world’s northernmost region, Greenland and the broader Arctic are emerging as strategic zones of interest for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
New maritime routes, including the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and potentially a transpolar passage, are becoming increasingly navigable during the summer months. For GCC states, especially the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which have invested heavily in global logistics and ports, the opening of Arctic Sea lanes offers a potential revolution in maritime commerce.[9]Reduced shipping time and fuel costs could bolster the competitiveness of GCC sovereign wealth fund–backed logistics giants, such as DP World and AD Ports Group.
Greenland is also rich in rare earth elements, uranium, and other strategic minerals that are essential for modern technologies — from wind turbines and electric vehicles (a key focus for Saudi PIF and UAE’s Mubadala), to missile systems (the UAE’s domestic defense company EDGE Group received a US$1.2 billion contract to provide aerial munitions to the government) and semiconductors. Gulf countries, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are actively diversifying their economies away from oil and gas. This includes ambitious investments in green energy, high-tech manufacturing, and defense technologies, all of which require reliable access to rare earth elements. Greenland’s potential to become an alternative source of these materials aligns with Gulf efforts to build resilient and diversified supply chains.[10]
As frontline states experiencing extreme heat, water scarcity, and rising sea levels, GCC countries have a deep stake in understanding and addressing climate change, a phenomenon that is both driving and being driven by the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet.
Greenland’s role in global sea level rise is of particular concern. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt entirely, sea levels could rise by over seven meters, threatening low-lying cities in the Gulf such as Dubai, Doha, and Manama. For the Gulf states, therefore, Greenland is not just a distant concern, it is directly linked to their climate security.
Joint scientific research on ice melt, ocean currents, and polar weather systems could form the basis for collaborative climate monitoring initiatives between Greenlandic, Danish, and GCC institutions. These partnerships would enhance the Gulf’s climate data infrastructure and contribute to its long-term adaptation strategies. Some Gulf universities and think tanks already engage in polar studies and could deepen such efforts through formal agreements or satellite missions monitoring Arctic changes.[11]
The GCC countries are increasingly positioning themselves to engage with Arctic governance frameworks as part of their global outreach and multilateral engagement strategy. The Arctic Council, established in 1996, is the leading intergovernmental forum for promoting cooperation, coordination, and interaction among Arctic states and Indigenous communities on issues such as sustainable development, environmental protection, and scientific research. While it does not have the power to enforce binding decisions, the Council holds significant normative and agenda-setting influence in shaping Arctic policy and fostering multilateral collaboration. The Artic Council grants observer status to non-Arctic states that recognize Arctic states’ sovereignty, support the Council’s objectives, and demonstrate a willingness to contribute to its work.[12] The UAE’s cabinet approved the country’s accession to the Arctic Council as an observer in April 2025, signifying the country’s willingness to engage in discussions on sustainable development and environmental protection in the region.[13]The UAE and Saudi Arabia have also actively participated in the Arctic Circle Assembly, an open, democratic platform that welcomes participation from governments, organizations, indigenous communities, corporations, universities, and think tanks from around the world.
As Arctic routes become navigable and Greenland seeks greater autonomy and development partners, GCC countries should position themselves not as passive observers, but as proactive stakeholders in shaping the future of the Arctic order — one that increasingly affects trade routes, energy security, and the global climate equilibrium.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in the INSIGHTS publication series are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Rabdan Security & Defense Institute, its affiliated organizations, or any government entity. The content published is intended for informational purposes and reflects the personal perspectives of the authors on various security and defence-related topics.
[1] Spence, Jennifer and Elizabeth Hanlon (2025) Explainer: The Geostrategic Significance of Greenland. Harvard Kennedy School: Belfer Center for Sciences and International Affairs, Geopolitical Significance of Greenland Explainer.pdf
[2] Tan, William (2024) The Coldest Geopolitical Hotspot: Global Powers Vie for Arctic Dominance over Greenland, Harvard International Review, The Coldest Geopolitical Hotspot: Global Powers Vie for Arctic Dominance over Greenland
[3] Paul, Michael and Göran Swistek (2022) Russia in the Arctic: Military Potential, and Conflict Prevention, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Russia in the Arctic - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
[4] Graceffo, Antonio (2024) China and Russia Arctic Policy Convergence? Shifting Geopolitics in the North, Geopolitical Monitor, Situation Reports, China and Russia Arctic Policy Convergence? Shifting Geopolitics in the North | Geopolitical Monitor
[5] AP News, 'What to know about the US military’s Pituffik Space Base in Greenland', March 28, 2025, What to know about the US military's Pituffik Space Base in Greenland | AP News
[6] Vaillant, Tom (2024) ‘Greenland’s Rare Earths Attract European and U.S. Interest, Signaling Potential Mining Boom’, Pulitzer Center, Greenland’s Rare Earths Attract European and U.S Interest, Signaling Potential Mining Boom (German) | Pulitzer Center
[7] Scholaert, Frederik, 'EU-Greenland relations in fisheries', European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), March 2025, EU-Greenland relations in fisheries
[8] Malik, I.H. and Ford, J.D. (2025) ‘Understanding the Impacts of Arctic Climate Change Through the Lens of Political Ecology’, WIREs Clim Change, 16: e927. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.927
[9] Gupta, Prithvi and Aneesh Parnerkar, 'Understanding the potential of the Northern Sea Route,' Observer Research Foundation (ORF), September 18, 2024, Understanding the potential of the Northern Sea Route
[10] Menezes, Dwayne Ryan (2021) The Case for a Five Eyes Critical Minerals Alliance: Focus on Greenland, Polar Research and Policy Initiative, Report-The-Case-for-a-FVEY-CMA.pdf
[11] NASA (2019) 'Greenland's rapid melt will mean more flooding,' Sea Level Change, December 11, 2019, Greenland's rapid melt will mean more flooding – NASA Sea Level Change Portal
[12] Khorrami, Nima and Andreas Østhagen, 'Expanding Horizons: The UAE’s Strategic Foray into the Arctic', December 10, 2024, The Arctic Institute, Expanding Horizons: The UAE’s Strategic Foray into the Arctic | The Arctic Institute – Center for Circumpolar Security Studies
[13] Emirates New Agency-WAM, ‘Mohammed bin Rashid chairs UAE Cabinet meeting in Al Marmoom, launches 'Plant the Emirates' programme’, October 6, 2024, Mohammed bin Rashid chairs UAE Cabinet meeting in Al Marmoom, launches 'Plant the Emirates' programme | Emirates News Agency
